Expected Value for Slot Machines Explained

• Published: September 6, 2013
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Slot machine strategy can turn very technical at times and we believe that as an online casino games provider it is our duty to make sure you understand the games and how you can be good at them. Therefore, in this article we will attempt to explain to you the complexities of the term expected return, an element that you should always consider when deciding on the right slot machine to invest on.

First, start thinking of online slots as a business in which you invest. If you put money into a business, you expect to obtain something in return. This is how we will begin thinking about expected return: the outcome you expect from putting your money and mind into something. Basically, when slot machine strategy speaks of expected return, it is using a mathematical way of expressing the probability of the outcome you can obtain while playing.

You will find the expected return to be expressed as a percentage, the main rule is that when the expected return is above 100 percent it is considered a positive expectation, and it is portrayed to you as +EV bet (positive expected value bet). If the expected return for a game is 100 percent then it is an even odds bet. Any expected return that is less than 100 percent is considered a negative expectation, or a -EV bet (negative expected value bet).

The expected return of a game is calculated by taking your chances of winning and multiplying them by the amount of money you win in comparison to how much you wagered. So basically it is your chances of winning multiplied by your winnings (and by winnings we don't mean the amount of money you bet and get back, but the surplus of money after your investment has been paid back).

The issue gets tricky when you realize that most slot games have a negative expected return. It is crucial that you understand this doesn't mean you can never win. Slot machine strategy is mainly about luck, so the prizes offered are always amazing, but you will need luck to win them. If you go by the expected return, then you can understand that, for example, if you bet 100 times, you will only be paid 97 times. However, within those 97 spins you might hit a jackpot and defy the odds.